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THE TRADING ADDICT
NEWSLETTER
by Trading Desk Capital
MAY 19, 2026 · NO. 1
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All Eyes on NVDA: Oil Stays Hot, War Pauses… and the FOMC's New Kid on the Block
A clear look at what is moving the market today, what matters next, and where investors may want to stay focused.
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Today's Stock Outlook
Today's market feels cautious rather than fragile. Stocks are holding up overall, but investors are becoming more selective as they weigh elevated oil prices, higher Treasury yields, and a geopolitical backdrop that can shift quickly.
Energy is leading as crude remains firm, while Financials are showing relative strength. Technology is mixed, not broadly weak: software is holding up better, while semiconductors and AI hardware are softer ahead of important catalysts.
The larger issue is the macro backdrop. Higher yields can weigh on valuations, particularly in growth stocks. President Trump's announcement that a planned Iran strike was paused offered some relief, but not enough to fully remove the risk premium from the market.
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Holding Up
Energy & Financials
Oil strength and sector rotation are helping these groups outperform.
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Under Pressure
Semis & AI Hardware
These pockets are softer, even as broader technology remains firmer.
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Market Message
Cautious, Not Broken
The tape is choppy, but the weakness remains selective.
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War Paused — or Just on Standby?
Today's geopolitical headline gave markets a fresh jolt: President Trump said he paused a planned strike on Iran while negotiators work through updated agreement terms that may be coming soon.
That brought some relief, especially with oil already elevated. Still, investors are not treating it as an all-clear signal. If negotiations progress, crude could ease and risk appetite may improve. If talks stall, the geopolitical premium can return quickly.
| Maria translation: the war may be paused, but the market knows the remote is still in someone's hand. |
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The Big Dog Reports Wednesday: NVDA
NVIDIA reports Wednesday after the close, and this may be the most important earnings event of the week. NVDA is no longer just a chip stock - it has become a real-time confidence check on the broader AI trade.
Investors will be focused on one core question: is AI infrastructure demand still strong enough to support the market's elevated expectations? The answer could influence Nvidia, semiconductors, mega-cap technology, and the Nasdaq's next move.
The bigger question hanging over this report: is the AI boom still accelerating, or are investors starting to ask whether expectations have simply gotten too high?
Nvidia's influence now reaches far beyond its own stock. It has accounted for roughly 20% of the S&P 500's total return so far this year, underscoring just how heavily the broader market has leaned on one AI leader. That is why this earnings report matters well beyond NVDA itself.
A strong report and confident guidance could help reignite enthusiasm for the AI trade. A weaker outlook - or results that fail to clear a very high bar - could give the market a reason to take profits.
| Maria translation: NVDA does not need to be good. It needs to be good enough for a market that already expects a lot. |
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The AI Supercycle: Where Are We Now?
The AI trade is not a single moment; it is a multi-stage cycle. Phase 1 rewarded the early chip, memory, and foundational infrastructure winners. Phase 2 is the buildout phase unfolding now - data centers, power, cooling, networking, and compute capacity.
The next wave may push AI more deeply into the physical world through robotics, autonomy, drones, defense, and advanced industrial systems. Beyond that, the longer-term opportunity moves toward broader AI software adoption and enterprise dominance.
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PHASE 1
ALREADY RAN (2023-2024)
• Chips, memory, early servers
• Foundation buildout
✓ COMPLETE
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PHASE 2
RIGHT NOW (2H24-Q1)
• Data centers & power
• GPUs, cooling, networking
WE ARE HERE
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PHASE 3
NEXT WAVE
• Robotics, autos, defense
• Long-term ramp
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PHASE 4
FINAL FRONTIER (2030+)
• AI & AGI in software
• The new oil
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| Maria translation: the AI boom may have several innings left. The key is understanding which phase we are in - and which companies are positioned to benefit next. |
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FOMC's New Kid on the Block
And just when investors thought they had enough to watch, the Fed added one more wrinkle. Markets are now sizing up the new FOMC guy, Kevin Warsh. Is this simply the cherry on top - or one more policy variable that needs to be priced in?
With markets already sensitive to rates, inflation, and bond yields, any meaningful shift in Fed tone could matter. The hope is that a fresh voice may also help reduce some of the political noise that has surrounded the Fed in recent years, allowing markets to focus more on policy and less on the drama around it.
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Still waiting for that dip…
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Still Waiting for a Real Dip?
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A lot of investors are asking the same question right now: Do I buy after this run, or do I wait for a real pullback - not just a quick one-day wobble that gets bought right back up?
Through the close on May 18, 2026, the S&P 500 was up 8.1% year to date, the Nasdaq Composite was up 12.3%, the Russell 2000 was up 11.8%, and the Dow was up 3.4%. After a move like that, aggressive buying can feel uncomfortable.
But waiting for the perfect dip carries its own risk: the market does not always revisit the price we hoped for, on the timeline we hoped for. A more disciplined approach is to stay patient, identify the levels where you would truly want to own quality names, and let the opportunity come to you.
For investors who want to stay involved without chasing stocks higher, selling far out-of-the-money puts on strong companies they would genuinely be comfortable owning can be a more patient approach. It allows them to define a lower price where they would be willing to buy, collect premium while they wait, and, if assigned, potentially enter the position below where the stock was trading when the put was sold.
Put credit spreads are another way to trade this kind of market while keeping risk defined. That said, the premium often feels light relative to the risk and capital being committed, so selectivity matters.
| Keep dry powder available. There is nothing worse than watching premiums finally expand and strong opportunities appear, only to realize too much capital was deployed during a moment of FOMO, leaving little flexibility when the better trades finally arrive. |
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Maria's Bottom Line
This is a market that rewards patience, preparation, and selectivity. Geopolitical headlines remain fluid, oil and yields continue to influence sentiment, NVDA could help shape the next move in technology, and investors are still assessing what a new FOMC voice may mean for policy.
In this environment, discipline matters more than emotion. Keep a focused watchlist, know the levels that matter, and when a better entry appears, act with a plan rather than reacting to the noise.
Stay patient. Stay prepared.
Let the opportunity come to you. |
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How Is AI Robot Phil Doing in the Trade Challenge?
Phil has been live since October 1, 2025. Here is where things stand today, Day 146.
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Trading Desk Combined Profit
+$1,167,395
8 of 8 months green · 146 trading days · Since Oct 1, 2025
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Account 1 · Tastytrade
$1M Robot Account
+$744,628
+74.4%
$1,000,000 → $1,744,628
23,434 TRADES
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Account 2 · Schwab
$30K Small Account
+$22,000
+73.3%
$30,000 → $52,000
SAME EDGE AT SCALE
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Bonus · Separate Strategy
The Crazy Ivan: 208 W — 1 L
+$422,767
The naked /NQ futures put trade that runs alongside Phil. 208 wins, 1 loss over 146 days. Same math. Different vehicle. Defined risk every time.
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Same Phil. Same system. Same edge at $30K and at $1M.
The math doesn't care about the dollars.
Thank you, Phil. Get a fill, Phil.
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Learn the Process
Want to Learn 0dte SPX and Trading With AI Robots?
Visit Rob and Maria Trading on YouTube for market breakdowns, Phil challenge updates, and the rules-based approach behind the process.
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Ready to go deeper?
Apply for the Next Cohort Waitlist
We teach how we actually build, run, and update Phil - our AI robot. Waitlist closes Monday, June 15, 2026 at 5pm ET. Seats are limited and the group is curated.
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Trade small, trade often. Trade with your head, not with your heart.
Math Makes Money. Get a fill, Phil.
- Rob & Maria
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The Trading Addict Newsletter by Trading Desk Capital - Market commentary for educational purposes. Not financial advice. Trade your plan. Manage risk. Stay disciplined.
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